The Quantum Threat to Cryptography
Quantum computers capable of breaking current public-key cryptography are estimated to arrive within 10-15 years. Organizations must begin preparing now because encrypted data stolen today can be decrypted in the future ("harvest now, decrypt later").
What Quantum Breaks
Vulnerable (Public-Key)
- RSA: Factoring broken by Shor's algorithm
- ECC: Discrete logarithm broken by Shor's algorithm
- DH: Key exchange broken by Shor's algorithm
Resistant (Symmetric)
- AES-256: Still secure (Grover's reduces to 128-bit equivalent)
- SHA-256: Still secure with doubled output
- HMAC: Still secure
NIST Post-Quantum Standards
ML-KEM (formerly CRYSTALS-Kyber)
Key Encapsulation Mechanism for key exchange:- Based on Module Learning with Errors (MLWE) problem
- Three parameter sets: ML-KEM-512, ML-KEM-768, ML-KEM-1024
- Already being integrated into TLS 1.3
ML-DSA (formerly CRYSTALS-Dilithium)
Digital Signature Algorithm:- Based on Module Learning with Errors and Short Integer Solution
- Three parameter sets for different security levels
- Primary recommendation for general-purpose signatures
SLH-DSA (formerly SPHINCS+)
Hash-based signature scheme:- Stateless hash-based signatures
- Conservative choice (hash functions well-understood)
- Larger signatures but high confidence in security
Migration Strategy
Phase 1: Inventory (Now)
- Catalog all cryptographic implementations
- Identify systems using vulnerable algorithms
- Assess data sensitivity and protection duration needs
- Prioritize based on "harvest now, decrypt later" risk
Phase 2: Crypto Agility (1-2 Years)
- Design systems to support algorithm swapping
- Implement hybrid modes (classical + post-quantum)
- Begin testing PQC algorithms in non-production environments
Phase 3: Migration (2-5 Years)
- Deploy PQC for highest-risk applications first
- Migrate key exchange mechanisms to ML-KEM
- Update signature schemes to ML-DSA
- Validate interoperability across systems
Phase 4: Completion (5-10 Years)
- Complete migration of all systems
- Deprecate classical-only cryptography
- Continuous monitoring for new quantum developments
Where SuperClue Fits
SuperClue's post-quantum crypto check tests whether your public TLS endpoints offer a hybrid post-quantum key exchange. It does not inventory cryptography inside your systems or build a migration roadmap.